St. Lawrence University

Mathematics, Compuer Science & Statistics

Hilary A. Hartson
Advisor: Dr. Michael Schuckers
Honor Theses Spring 2005

"Sequential Analysis"

Abstract:
In this paper we investigate Wald's Sequential Analysisto develop a basic understanding of sequential testing. Sequential testing differs from traditional hypothesis testing in that it allows for three possible conclusions to be made after a subset of observations hav ebeen drawn. These three conclusions are: reject the null hypothesis, accept the null hypothesis, and continue testing. This is in contrast to traditional hypothesis testing where the choices to be made are reject or accept. We begin our disucssion of sequential testing by introducing a sequential test, called the sequential probability ration test and then use it to derive decision rules for compairng a proportion against a one-sided alternative. We consider application of th is test to a variety of possible rates for the hypotheesized value. Lastly, we domonstrate the effects of changing the values of our Type I and Type II errors on these decsion rules.

Contents
1.
Abstract
2. Backaground and Motivation
3. Notation
4. Dequential Testing
5. Sequential Pobability Ration Test
6. Decison Rules in Testing the Mean of a Binomial Distribution
7. An Exampleof Stopping/Decison Rules for aBionomial Distribution
8. More Examples of Stopping/Decision Rules for Bionomial Distributins with varying values of and
9. Further Steps
10. References
11.
Appendix: R code

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Updated: 8/19/05
St. Lawrence University
Math, CS, & Stats Dept.